Controlled, Not Open or Closed


Yes, we are buried in data and it can be very overwhelming. The question is are we getting the pandemic under control. The problem is averages can be very misleading. Thus it depends on your location.

∫ The graph in the lower right is the entire country. 25/100k means there are 25 deaths per one hundred thousand people. This expression helps us compare one locality to another.

We see the trend is downward and that looks good, right? But look at the axis. We are still above 1000 deaths to COVID19 every day. Horrific but not getting worse. Kind of bad news, good news. The downward trend is driven by numbers coming out of NY and NJ. They are indeed getting better.


∫ Now look on the top left. Louisiana appears to be doing better and after "opening". Yet the death rate is large, and twice the national rate. At 49 per 100K LA has a problem. It has a lot to do with the socio-economics and virus transmission.


∫ The Illinois graph shows the same death rate as the US but its trend is upward after "opening". The trajectory is the same from the beginning suggesting the state is without infection control.


∫ The CA graph shows a flat trend will still largely "closed". Yet the death rate remains low at 28% of the US rate. With over 31 M people must be careful "opening" as millions of people remain susceptible.


WE MUST NOT ASSUME WHAT "OPEN" MEANS. IT IS SO VAUGE AS TO BE MEANINGLESS. YET THE PUSH TO OPEN MAY WELL RELEASE THE CONTROL THAT "CLOSED" PROVIDES. This is the Dr. Fauci warning.


∫ Open vs. Closed is a false dichotomy and does not serve us. Rather it is a continuum where local health scientists provide guidance on how to best open stepwise while managing the risk to its citizens



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